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Mesoscale Discussion 2052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 111728Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least a few tornadoes is increasing
across portions of southern LA into far southern MS. A Tornado Watch
issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a gradual increase
in the intensity of convective cells embedded within the broader
rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, which are attempting
to move ashore. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in southeastern LA
are in the upper 70s/mid 70s F, which are contributing to 500+ J/kg
MLCAPE. At the same time, low-level shear continues to increase
along the Gulf Coast, with the HDC VAD profiler showing increasingly
curved hodographs, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted. Low-level
shear should continue to increase through the afternoon, with a
subsequent increase in tornado potential likely as well. Given the
increasing severe risk, a Tornado Watch issuance will be needed
soon.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29539220 30089172 30559106 30769022 30888930 30908867
            30808839 30598827 30238832 29968878 29288907 29048912
            29008966 29019042 29099128 29539220