Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a
few strong gusts could acco*pany the most robust convection.

...Northeast...

Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great
Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height
falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will
translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into
southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage
scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level
lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit
buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast
soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less
than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak
frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the
large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest
lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms.

...Central High Plains...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined
short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward
the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee
trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a
strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE.
Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will
occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective
temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will
likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even
so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be
strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a
MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to
account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail.
Will continue to monitor this region.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024