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Mesoscale Discussion 2049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of OH into southeast IN...northern
KY...western PA...northern WV Panhandle...far western NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061918Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and hail are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing this afternoon from
parts of the Ohio Valley to near Lake Erie, along/ahead of a cold
front and in advance of a seasonably deep upper-level trough that is
digging southeastward into the region. Convergence along the front
is currently rather weak, but may increase later this afternoon in
response to the digging upper trough. This should allow for an
increase in storm coverage through the afternoon.

Deep-layer flow will also gradually increase across the region in
response to the digging trough, as MLCAPE approaches 1000 K/kg in
areas where stronger heating persists. Effective shear will increase
to 25-30 kt ahead of the front (generally weaker with southward
extent), with somewhat greater effective shear immediately behind
the leading wind shift, where surface winds beco*e northwesterly but
relatively favorable moisture and instability will persist in
advance of the deeper cool/dry airmass moving in from the northwest.

Midlevel lapse rates are generally weak, but modestly supportive
buoyancy and effective shear will support potential for a few
organized storms later this afternoon. Locally damaging winds appear
to be the most likely hazard, especially where stronger
heating/mixing has occurred ahead of the front. Some hail may be
possible with any sustained discrete cells.

..Dean/Mosier.. 09/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37888706 40618389 41318241 41508176 41538168 42018045
            42307966 42787832 42547814 42147817 41317925 40727998
            39498152 39178214 38568320 38238438 38018555 37888706