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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

High pressure will continue to build in across the western US 
through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across
the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward.
Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds
will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The
aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some
increase in fire behavior. 

A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected
D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from
the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase.
Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday,
where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and
ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return
northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few
areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern
Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with
further warming and drying is expected through the early extended
and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks.

The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8
/Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern
California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This
will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical
conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this
trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and
when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions
of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and
into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be
adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk
on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds
speeds increase.

..Thornton.. 09/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...