Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern
for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest
OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over
the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the
western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over
the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late
afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of
mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the
northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate
buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings
suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for
dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given
the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th
percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee
side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where
orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. 

Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should
enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas
of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most
likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble
confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is
somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated
conditions based on latest ensemble guidance).

..Moore.. 09/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...