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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and
hail may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the
central Rockies into the northern/central Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made
to the outlook with this update. Isolated thunderstorms are
developing/spreading eastward across the central Rockies this
afternoon -- ahead of a positively tilted midlevel trough moving
across the region. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts. For additional
details, see MCD #2047. Across the central Plains into the Upper MS
Valley, severe-thunderstorm potential is more uncertain along/behind
the cold front this evening into the overnight hours. However, given
the potential for isolated instances of severe hail and locally
strong/damaging gusts, the Marginal Risk has been maintained across
this area.

Farther east, clusters of thunderstorms are tracking westward across
the central Gulf Coast, in an environment characterized by 2+ inch
PW and pockets of diurnal heating/boundary-layer destabilization.
Given some banded convection here -- aided by enhanced low-level
easterlies -- a couple water-loaded downbursts will be possible.
Overall, the severe threat still appears too localized/marginal for
5-percent severe wind probabilities.

..Weinman.. 09/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/

...Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a broad shortwave trough currently
moving through southern ID and northern NV/UT. This shortwave trough
and acco*panying cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to
continue eastward throughout the day, progressing across WY and
northern CO. Modest buoyancy, fostered mainly by cooling mid-level
temperatures, is anticipated across WY and adjacent parts of
northern CO as the shortwave trough progresses through. Thunderstorm
development is expected as the large-scale ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough interacts with this buoyancy during the afternoon.
Moderate mid-level westerlies will acco*pany this shortwave trough
as well, with the resulting increase in vertical shear supporting
the potential for a few more organized/persistent storms. Initially
more cellular development across the higher terrain could pose a
risk for isolated hail, particularly across south-central WY and
north-central CO where the best overlap between the stronger shear
and cold mid-level temperatures is expected. Damaging wind gusts are
possible as well, particularly as the storms reach the lower
elevations of central High Plains where a deeply mixed boundary
layer will be in place.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast ND, with weak
troughing extending southwestward from this low in east-central CO.
The primary cold front is west of this surface trough, extending
from the low over southeast ND into more of northwest SD and
adjacent northeast WY. The surface low is forecast to progress
east-southeastward throughout the day, reaching south-central MN by
late tonight. The attendant cold front is expected to push southward
during the same period, progressing through much of NE by early
Thursday morning.

Warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development
along the surface trough during the afternoon and evening. A few
isolated storms are possible during the evening behind the front as
the shortwave trough ejects out into the central Plains. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected overnight/early Thursday
morning across the Upper MS Valley, with some isolated hail possible
within the strongest storms.