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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday,
though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into
parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to
slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a
reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and
Midwest.

...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity...
With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the
Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal
moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into
the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest
buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of
convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening.
Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the
digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized
storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate
destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding
destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer
flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may
eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio
Valley.

..Dean.. 09/04/2024