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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and
adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon will pose an
isolated severe risk, before spreading eastward toward the northern
High Plains this evening.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made
with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving across
the northern Rockies and adjacent Great Basin this afternoon. These
storms are generally focused in a band of midlevel ascent preceding
a co*pact midlevel low tracking eastward across central ID. This
activity will continue spreading east-northeastward through the
afternoon, with initial semi-discrete clusters/transient supercells
posing a risk of sporadic, marginally severe hail and locally severe
gusts. See MCDs 2044/2045 for details on the near-term severe risk. 

Later this afternoon, a more-focused corridor of severe-wind
potential is possible from portions of northwest WY into
southwest/south-central MT, especially with any upscale-grown
clusters amid steep deep-layer lapse rates. A 15-percent wind-driven
Slight Risk was considered here, though confidence in the
development of an organized/consolidated cold pool remains too low
for an upgrade.

..Weinman.. 09/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/

...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows a smoke-encased mid to
upper-level low/vorticity maximum over central ID.  This upper
feature will move to near southwest MT/eastern ID late tonight.  The
satellite data late this morning shows agitated cumulus developing
immediately ahead of the vorticity max near the ID/MT border, and as
large-scale ascent spreads east, additional thunderstorms (widely
scattered to scattered coverage) should develop over the higher
terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating.

Forecast soundings across southwest MT into northwest WY show
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with some elongation of the hodograph.  A few
of the stronger storms will probably acquire transient supercell
characteristics and have an associated hail/wind threat.  Some
clustering may eventually evolve by early evening as storms move
into south-central MT and adjacent parts of northern WY.  

Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this
afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal
heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon,
and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over
this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable
of producing isolated severe gusts initially developing across
northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving
east-northeastward over WY through the evening.