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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing
gusty/locally damaging winds will exist from parts of
Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may
also occur across the northern Plains region.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weak upper trough providing cooling aloft and modest flow will
move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, while a cold front
moves across the Dakotas, trailing southwestward into the central
High Plains by 00Z. High pressure will remain over much of the East,
providing stable conditions there, and enhancing southerly winds
over the Plains ahead of the front. In general, a plume of 50s to
lower 60s F dewpoints will spread north toward the front late in the
day.

Scattered storms will first form over the higher terrain across
eastern MT, WY, and into central CO, with steep lapse rates and
modest deep-layer shear favoring marginal hail. Storms will also
form along the cold front, from eastern CO into the Dakotas. Backed
low-level winds and veering winds with height may support a few
supercells, though multicellular clusters will also be likely as
winds aloft are on the marginal side for better organized storm
structures. Still, favorable time of day and steep low-level lapse
rates will likely favor gusty to locally severe gusts as activity
spreads across the northern and central Plains through the evening.

..Jewell.. 09/02/2024