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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Global models have co*e into a bit better agreement with each other,
through late next week, with respect to their handling of the
large-scale features.  Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing
central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to
continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper
Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday
morning.  As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance
of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains
overnight.  Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is
expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the
southern-tier states.  Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may
evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains
corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears
limited at this time.

Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of
the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and
Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the
trough to enco*pass the entire eastern half of the country by
Saturday morning.  The associated cold front -- crossing the central
U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to
Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight.  Meanwhile,
the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern
U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant
baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf
Coast area.  While still uncertain, this low may shift across the
Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday
morning.  While it is not out of the question that -- with this
front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air,
that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight.  However, this
scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in
terms of significance.

Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it
advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models
suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario
vicinity with time.  Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged
to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave,
with the co*bined front to linger near -- and eventually move off --
the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern
New England overnight.  Again, some severe potential may manifest
ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models
suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore.

By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period,
model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the
deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the
upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country.  Overall
severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general
ridging likely over the western half of the country.