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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA...

Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm
chances further north into Washington/Idaho and to bring the
Critical fire weather area further north into Oregon. This is in
agreement with latest conditional probabilities from the hr** for
sustained Critical wind/RH as well as conditional probability of
thunder. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 09/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest/Great Basin as well as central to northern High Plains on
Monday afternoon. 

...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin...
South/southwest mid-level flow along the West Coast will gradually
increase over the next 24-48 hours with the approach of an upper
wave currently off the northern CA coast. This will act to
strengthen downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada with most
deterministic and ensemble solutions indicating that winds between
15-25 mph will be co*mon by peak heating Monday afternoon when RH
values will fall into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions appear likely - especially across the CA/NV/OR tri-state
region where the strongest winds are expected under the mid-level
jet max. A warming trend over the past week (featuring multiple days
of sub-20% RH minimums) has maintained ERC values well within the
80-90th percentiles across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin. While thunderstorms are anticipated across parts of the
region today (Sunday), little rain accumulation is expected, and
holdover fires from dry-lightning starts may beco*e more active
Monday as winds increase.

Dry thunderstorms will also be a concern across much of NV, central
to eastern OR, and western ID. A plume of mid-level moisture (noted
in 00z soundings and water-vapor imagery across NV into southern OR)
is expected to continue spreading north through Monday afternoon.
Lift associated with the wave should support another day of isolated
thunderstorms. Dry boundary-layer conditions will promote limited
rainfall and an attendant threat of dry lightning. While
thunderstorms are possible across a broader swath of the region, the
dry-lightning risk area was confined to areas with receptive fuels
and low probability for wetting rainfall per ensemble guidance. 

...High Plains...
A surface high currently building across the northern Plains in the
wake of a cold front is forecast to shift east towards the Midwest
by Monday afternoon. Modest lee troughing juxtaposed with the nearby
surface high will bolster southerly pressure gradient winds across
northeast CO and western NE/SD. The displacement of richer low-level
moisture to the south across the southern Plains will promote a dry
return flow regime with afternoon RH values falling to near 20%.
When co*bined with 15-20 mph winds and very dry fuels (ERCs are
currently estimated to be above the 90th percentile), elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear probable.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...