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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are
probable this afternoon across the southern Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic region, as well as across parts of southern New
England.

...Synopsis...
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region with an attendant cold front noted in surface
observations extending from the Great Lakes region into the central
Plains. The northern portion of the cold front will continue to
surge to the east in tandem with the upper trough; to the south, the
front will begin to slow as it beco*es increasingly frontolytic over
the TN Valley and Ozark Plateau later today. Thunderstorm
development will mainly be focused along this front as it impinges
on a moist, weakly capped air mass currently in place from the
Mid-MS River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. More isolated
thunderstorm chances are anticipated across the southern U.S. and
over portions of the Southwest/Great Basin. 

...Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Initially isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the
cold front as it approaches the TN Valley/southern Appalachians, but
the weakly capped environment will favor additional development
along convective outflows as well as orographically-initiated
convection within the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
As such, convective coverage should increase through mid-afternoon
as storms propagate east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Mid-level
flow on the southern periphery of the upper trough will be strong
enough to support around 20 knots of effective bulk shear, which
should support loosely organized convective clusters/multi-cells
with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. Recent CAM guidance
suggests central NC/VA may see the best potential for such clusters,
and consequently could have a relatively higher potential for
damaging winds. 

Further to the northeast into parts of southern New England,
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be much more isolated and tied
primarily to a deepening surface trough during the mid/late
afternoon hours. While buoyancy will remain somewhat meager due to
poor mid-level lapse rates, stronger mid-level flow in closer
proximity to the upper trough may support an organized storm or two.


...Northwest New York...
Consideration for a small Marginal risk area was made across far
northwest NY. Forcing along the cold front will be much stronger
along the international border with several CAM solutions hinting
that shallow convection may acco*pany the front with an attendant
damaging wind risk (as was observed Saturday evening across the
upper Great Lakes region). However, warmer mid-level temperatures
further over the Northeast should limit overall buoyancy values and
casts uncertainty onto convective depth and intensity. Additionally,
most CAM solutions hint that this potential will remain fairly
confined to along the NY international border. Due to these concerns
risk probabilities were withheld, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Moore.. 09/01/2024