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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 08/31/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/

...Synopsis...
Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on
Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An
upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off
the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving
onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent
ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and
the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface
winds co*pared to previous days (though generally at or below 15
mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from
across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection
on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but
mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry
boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry
lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given
regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger
forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across
the Great Basin co*pared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions
hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for
dry lightning strikes.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...