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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and hail,
will be possible today from parts of the central Appalachians into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible in parts of the northern Great Lakes.

...Central Appalachians/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move through the Great Lakes region, with
the southern end of the trough located in the mid Mississippi
Valley. An associated cold front will advance southeastward through
the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to
develop by midday ahead of much of the front. Further to the east, a
pre-frontal trough will be located from western New York and western
Pennsylvania southwestward into eastern Kentucky. Scattered
thunderstorms will form from near the front eastward to near the
pre-frontal trough. By early to mid afternoon, RAP forecast
soundings have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range from
western New York southwestward into West Virginia. Along this
portion of the instability corridor, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 20 to 30 knot range. This, along with 0-3 km lapse rates near
7.5 C/km will support severe wind gusts with the more organized
bowing line segments. Hail will also be possible.

Further to the southwest into parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, the models suggest that deep-layer shear will generally be
below 20 knots. Although steep low-level lapse rates could be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat, the weakness in shear should keep
any threat isolated.

...Northern Great Lakes...
A cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place today across much
of southern Canada and over the Great Lakes. Within this flow, a
shortwave trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move
southeastward toward the northern Great Lakes. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak
destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form
along and ahead of the front as instability peaks during the mid to
late afternoon. In spite of the weak instability, large-scale ascent
and strong deep-layer shear, associated with the shortwave trough,
could be enough for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Moore.. 08/31/2024