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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and
continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through
D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase,
with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific
Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to
thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an
increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very
dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great
Basin.

...Dry/Windy...
Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern
California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves
through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly
winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity
reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically
dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best
overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across
northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70%
probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with
subsequent outlooks.

Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of
southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest
confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the
Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with
this outlook.

...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR
on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as
midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A
mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding
eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across
the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying
(beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event
will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions.

Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on
Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and
precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk
which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities.

..Thornton.. 08/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...