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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the
Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into
northeast Georgia.

...20z Update...
The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The
thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed
behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted
eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan.

Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell
clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for
occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was
expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account
for a few of these clusters as they track eastward.

Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western
Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain
of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet
microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area
was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for
occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior
outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion.

..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/

...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front
that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this
afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg.  Modestly enhanced
westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts
of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized
multicell storms.  Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight
Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. 
Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level
lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of
damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. 

Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the
Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z,
tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging
gusts and perhaps hail. 

...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew
points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong
instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and
effectively no CINH.  Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts,
scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over
higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong
wind gusts through this afternoon.