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Mesoscale Discussion 2036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Lower Michigan into extreme
northeast Indiana and extreme northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 301825Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon
across portions of eastern Lower Michigan and immediate surrounding
areas. Severe gusts are the main concern, though a couple of
tornadoes or instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out. A WW
issuance may be needed in the next few hours pending favorable
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation has supported surface temperatures
reaching the mid 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, contributing to
nearly 3000 J/kg SBCAPE (per 17Z mesoanalysis, and when modifying
the 12Z DTX observed sounding). However, both the mesoanalysis and
the modified sounding show MLCAPE under 500 J/kg with appreciable
MLCINH remaining given some 850 mb dry-air advection from the
southwest. Nonetheless, continued diurnal heating and the approach
of a 500 mb trough and acco*panying surface cold front will support
an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity into the
afternoon. The approach of the upper trough will encourage some
strengthening/veering of tropospheric winds, resulting in 30 kts of
effective bulk shear and modestly elongated/curved hodographs.
Multicells and line segments are the main storm modes expected,
though a transient supercell is also possible. Damaging gusts are
the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of severe
hail could also occur. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 08/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41468590 42578510 43358456 43798388 44058323 43958288
            43228237 42698250 41958305 41508333 41328399 41268496
            41298539 41468590