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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range/global models are in reasonably good agreement with
respect to synoptic-scale features across the U.S. through about Day
6/Tuesday.  Late in the period, models begin deviating with respect
to their handling of an upper low, which through the first half of
the period is progged to be moving in a slow, anticyclonic arc
around northern fringes of a western and central U.S. ridge.  As
this feature crests the ridge, moving across the northern
Intermountain region Day 7/Wednesday, model solutions begin to
diverge with respect to progression of the system, with divergence
continuing through Day8.  Therefore, while some severe risk may
acco*pany the advance of this feature toward/into the north-central
U.S. late in the period, uncertainty precludes any further
assessment of this potential.

Meanwhile early in the period, an upper trough will shift across the
northeastern quarter of the country Day 4/Sunday.  An associated
cold front is progged to advance across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
region, but with preceding low-level moisture likely already swept
off the New England Coast by a prior frontal passage.  As such, it
appears that only a limited potential for stronger storms will exist
along trailing portions of the front farther south (from the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity westward into the Tennessee Valley area) with
stronger flow aloft remaining farther to the north.

Days 5-6 and beyond, the front will continue sagging southward
across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, as a Canadian surface
high settles southeastward into the Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest. 
While convection can be expected near and south of this boundary,
stronger flow aloft will remain well north of this region, thus
precluding organized severe potential.