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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in
place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer
warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into
the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height
falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low
approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support
an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though
confidence in this scenario is low. 

Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across
northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent
overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support
isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over
portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into
overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height
falls/ascent acco*panying the upper trough/low will overspread OR,
as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day
of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry.
Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm
event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
added for both days.

The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the
northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel
trough -- though the details are unclear at this time.

..Weinman.. 08/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...