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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains.  A few severe
storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic
region.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper-level short-wave trough will shift east across the
Northeast on Thursday, as a much stronger trough/low will continue
to advance into/across the north-central states.  At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the
Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more
prominent cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
central and northern Plains.

...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains...
Large scale ascent with the upper low/trough will increase in the
vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front over MN/northern IA,
augmented by the right-entrance region of a 250-mb jet lifting north
during the day.  Substantial instability should be in place by
afternoon, with afternoon MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg expected.
Strengthening mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough
will contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts, supporting
organized storms including the potential for supercell structures. 
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon and
evening, beco*ing more linear with time along the cold front. 
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe hazards,
with the severe risk continuing into the evening hours.  Some
tornado risk may also develop with embedded QLCS circulations as
low-level shear appears supportive, especially within the Slight
Risk area. 

Both instability and shear will diminish with southward extent
across eastern NE/northern KS, however afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected along the front within a largely uncapped
environment.  Isolated damaging winds will be the primary risk as
strong boundary-layer heating will steepen low-level lapse rates,
and storms begin to cluster during the late afternoon/evening.
Instances of large hail will also be possible.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...
A southward-moving cold front will move across the mid-Atlantic in
the lee of the Appalachians Thursday within a moderately unstable
though weakly sheared environment.  With minimal afternoon CINH,
thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain and along the
front and tend to cluster with time.  This will result in a risk for
damaging gusts, and perhaps hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Bunting.. 08/28/2024