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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South
Dakota.

...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic...

Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as
heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow,
in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a
weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should
advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave
trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH
Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary
focus for robust convective development later today.

Early this morning, leading edge of a larger co*plex of convection
has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate
downstream into western PA later this morning, and some
intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass
as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity
would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant
risk for primarily wind.

Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve
ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday.
Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL
into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While
deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along
with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection.
Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based
updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z.  

...Dakotas...

Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies
into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will
develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during
the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in
a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas
by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very
strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD
extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow
corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will
hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM
forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with
ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models
also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will
support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells
should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very
large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with
early evening supercells.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024