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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern
Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build
over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface
winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that
time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected,
most notably across the Northwest.

Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific
Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on
coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will
not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing
midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm
risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario
is low). 

On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue
east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial
midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel
moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support
mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent.
Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across
portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should
phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities
have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel
receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though
probabilities may eventually be needed as those details beco*e more
clear.

..Weinman.. 08/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...