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Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 211459Z - 211600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will increase through late
morning/early afternoon, along with attendant risk for damaging
winds.  WW will be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the
central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending
southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys.  A steady
increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low
80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next
couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. 
Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately
strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern
side of the southwestern Quebec upper low.  As such, storms will
beco*e increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts --
initially in a more localized manner but beco*e more widespread with
time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale
locally into small clusters/lines.  Initial WW issuance is expected
within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New
England.

..Goss.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   46866993 46136902 44286949 42497098 40947251 40617396
            42097458 42907580 43287569 44077448 45117364 45177180
            45627081 46866993