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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern
evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be
characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending
toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging
over the West.  Late in the period, as the pattern continues to
progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into
the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually
toward the central states.  Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S.
trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New
England and the Canadian Maritimes.

Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves
across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then
reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada,
a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward
across the central and eastern CONUS.  

On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over
the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front.  By
Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk --
may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area.  A
continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the
next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with
most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New
England into the Mid-Atlantic region.  Overall however, with
low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian
frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south
of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and
gradually decreasing through the period.  As such, no risk areas are
being included in the medium-range outlook at this time.