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Mesoscale Discussion 2002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...Western SD into the northern NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650...

Valid 262151Z - 262315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado will
spread eastward through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is beco*ing increasingly well organized
this afternoon from the Black Hills vicinity to near the NE/SD
border, immediately in advance of a seasonably strong shortwave
trough moving across northern WY/southern MT. While the mode has
already beco*e primarily linear, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater
with southward extent) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to
support embedded supercell structures. 

As this developing QLCS moves eastward, it will be acco*panied by a
threat of severe gusts, with some increasing threat for significant
gusts (greater than 75 mph) if continued upscale growth occurs. Hail
(locally in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and possibly a tornado
will also be possible with embedded supercells, especially along the
southern portion of the QLCS, where instability is stronger and the
line will intersect a nearly stationary surface boundary near the
NE/SD border.

..Dean.. 08/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44670401 44650297 44350204 43900170 43210161 42670184
            42400218 42260262 42130320 42120394 42430392 42960376
            43300366 43610359 43890360 44670401