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Mesoscale Discussion 2000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...Far eastern South Dakota into Central/Southwest
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

Valid 261943Z - 262145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for large/very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe
winds (some 75+ mph) will increase this afternoon into the evening,
especially for parts of central/southern Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...A storm within the buoyancy gradient has increased in
intensity over the last 30 minutes. Additional development appears
likely to its immediate south-southwest. Potential for large and
severe winds are expected to increase this afternoon. Of additional
concern are towering cumulus starting to develop in west-central
Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Short-term guidance from the
HRRR and the latest MPAS runs suggest that one or both of these
areas could see storms develop within the next 1-3 hours. These
storms are in a more favorable thermodynamic environment than storms
farther north. Large to very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe winds
(some 75+ mph) would be possible. The exact evolution of these
storms remains a point of uncertainty. Most guidance suggests that
storms could congeal into an MCS where severe winds would beco*e a
greater threat as activity moves east.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   46659530 46999428 46849376 45429329 44699369 43869508
            43749616 43679628 43689642 43909656 44839673 46349668
            46479616 46659530