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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across
the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south
across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  A strong upper
low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive
upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the
mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH
Valley/Northeast...
Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper
Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in
advance of the upper-level trough.  Substantial destabilization
(MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon
in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from
early day storms.  Although the front should move south of the
stronger mid-level flow before beco*ing quasi-stationary, sufficient
shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix
of multicell and supercell structures.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across
eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as
farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast
KS vicinity.  Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms
should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time
posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard.
Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the
strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of
greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but
uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early
storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions.  This potential will be
addressed in future outlooks.

..Bunting.. 08/26/2024