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Mesoscale Discussion 1995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261551Z - 261745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail
around 1-1.5 inch diameter through the afternoon. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity at midday as strong heating occurs across a seasonally
moist airmass. The 12z RAOB from ALB indicated modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km amid 30 kt 0-6 km
northwesterly flow. Cool midlevel temperatures contributing modest
instability, and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large hail
will be possible with stronger cells. Effective shear magnitudes
will be somewhat marginal for longer-lived well-organized updrafts,
and convection may be somewhat pulse-like. As additional heating
occurs, steepening low-level lapse rates also may support sporadic
strong/locally damaging gusts. Convective trends are being monitored
for possible watch issuance for portions of the MCD area, with
somewhat greater watch potential focused across southern New England
this afternoon.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42417333 43477307 43887195 44077104 44017041 43706991
            42857006 41637019 41037123 40527256 40627289 41347314
            42417333