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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday,
as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge
moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada --
partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and
moving into the Canadian Maritimes.  Upstream, a strong upper low is
forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent
northern Intermountain Region through the period.

At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to
extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while
retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the
northern Plains.  This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts
into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon
and evening.  By the end of the period, this cold front should
extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains.

...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic...
Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region
at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to
early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic
features -- both surface and aloft.  While the risk areas will
likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current
indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the
afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface
baroclinic zone beco*es moderately unstable.  The most favorable
kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to
southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward
across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest.  As such, damaging winds
would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern
portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent
into the Midwest.  Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will
likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the
overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the
period.

...Northern Plains...
As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and
northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of
the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass
into the Dakotas is expected to occur.  Afternoon heating will
support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by
late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front
shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas.  While
some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely
be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North
Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight.

..Goss.. 08/26/2024