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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday.

...Great Lakes Vicinity...

Only modest outlook changes have been made with the Day 3 update as
overall pattern remains similar to prior thinking.

An upper trough over the northern Plains will migrate east across
the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. This will suppress the upper
ridge over the Midwest while bringing a belt of enhanced westerly
flow across the region. Convection will likely be ongoing across
portions of WI/MI, though exact location of morning thunderstorms is
a bit uncertain and will be driven by evolution of a possible MCS in
the Day 2/Mon period. Nevertheless, a very moist boundary-layer is
forecast, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F ahead
of southeastward-advancing cold front. Strong to extreme instability
is forecast, though some midlevel inhibition may persist across
portions of the region. Nevertheless, this overall pattern continues
to point toward severe thunderstorm potential, mainly in the form of
severe/damaging gusts and large hail across the Great Lakes vicinity
Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

...NE/IA vicinity...

The western extent of the surface front will sag southward across
the area. Strong differential heating along the boundary is
forecast. A very moist boundary-layer will support strong
instability, but warm midlevels leading to capping may preclude
thunderstorm development. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) has been
extended southwest along the forecast frontal zone for a conditional
risk of severe storms during the afternoon into early evening as
strong gusts and hail could occur if storms develop.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2024