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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF NORTHEAST MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight
across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening
from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region.

...Northeast MT vicinity...
An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening
across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an
environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and
favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later
tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests
potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across
northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based
convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some
credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this
occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for
organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the
cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the
conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later
tonight. 

...Four Corners into the central High Plains...
Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing
early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized
strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed
environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before
convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled
out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into
western NE, though MLCINH should beco*e increasingly prohibitive
with time. 

...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles...
Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat
of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK
Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be
disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening.

..Dean.. 08/25/2024