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Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Areas affected...Northwest New Mexico into south-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242049Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds and small to marginally severe hail
are possible in the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A plume of mid-level moisture is lifting northward into
the Four Corners vicinity on water vapor imagery. Widely-scattered
to scattered storms have developed in the higher terrain this
afternoon. Most storms have remained rather shallow, but a cluster
of stronger storms has formed in northwest New Mexico where greater
heating has occurred. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds
between the Northwestern upper trough and the central U.S. upper
ridge, effective shear of 35-40 kts will allow a few stronger
multicells to develop. These storms could produce strong severe wind
gusts as well as small to marginally severe hail. Overall forcing
for ascent will remain weak as will buoyancy. The severe threat
should remain isolated and marginal.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...

LAT...LON   34330840 35370993 37220833 38350699 38780582 38240447
            35760545 34500661 34330840