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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four
Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over
northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota and also across western
Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The primary change for this update was the removal of the Marginal
risk area across southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. The ongoing
MCS along the MO/AR border has shown a steady weakening trend over
the past few hours in early all convective metrics (IR cloud top
temperatures, lightning counts, maximum reflectivity, etc...). A
sporadic strong updraft pulse or two will remain possible across
northern AR given MLCAPE values between 1000-22000 J/kg, but the
overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the MCS migrates
closer to the center of an upper anti-cyclone where deep-layer wind
shear is negligible. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track with
no changes required. See the previous discussion (below) for
additional details.

..Moore.. 08/24/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/

...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota...
Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of
isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as
early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely
this evening across the region. This development is possible
along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where
moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the
cloud-bearing layer.

...Four Corners to Central High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late
afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this
corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and
hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains.
Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough
cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a
well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind
gusts.

...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas...
A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward
today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster
tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of
surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong
gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe
potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature.

...Western/northern Oklahoma....
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late
afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe
microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist
under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its
west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture
should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot,
well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg.