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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from
the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during
the afternoon and evening Monday.  A few severe storms are also
expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on
Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb)
will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s).
A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest
into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through
the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the
day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may
develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into
central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and
isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of
the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in
subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details beco*e better resolved. 

Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the
post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern
High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could acco*pany this activity.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region
as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist
airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting
isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep
low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak
instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small
hail. 

...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity...

Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this
update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the
degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members
showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM
solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a
large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until
confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater
thunderstorm coverage.

..Leitman.. 08/24/2024