Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TO THE WISCONSIN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from
the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity, and
southward to the southern High Plains during the afternoon and
evening Monday.  A few severe storms are also expected across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Intermountain West at the start of the
period is forecast to eject northeastward across the High Plains
into the north-central U.S. by the second half of the period.  This
will result in weakening of the persistent upper ridge over the
central CONUS.  Meanwhile, a weak upper low is forecast to shift
south-southeastward across the Northeast/New England through the
period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying across the north-central
U.S. will sharpen and shift southeastward through the second half of
the period, as the upper system shifts into/across the northern
Plains.  This front will likely focus severe storm development
during the afternoon and evening hours.

...South Dakota vicinity to the Upper Great Lakes...
While timing of the ejection of the upper system into/across the
north-central U.S. remains a bit uncertain due to differences in the
output from various models, a general consensus that afternoon storm
initiation will occur across this region exists, as a very unstable
airmass evolves diurnally.  With flow forecast to veer/increase with
height to southwesterly at 40 to 50 kt, shear will support
organized/supercell storms.  Coverage through the daylight hours may
remain isolated across much of the region however, due to low-level
capping.  Still, any storms which do develop would be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  

Storm coverage may increase overnight as the trough advances and a
southwesterly low-level jet develops, with convection -- and ongoing
severe risk, spreading eastward across the Upper Midwest into the
Upper Mississippi Valley into early Tuesday morning

...The High Plains...
Modest afternoon destabilization forecast across the High Plains
from southeastern Montana southward to northeastern New Mexico and
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles should support isolated storm
development.  This development will be aided by increasing
large-scale ascent associated with the ejection of the upper trough
across the High Plains region during the afternoon.  While flow
aloft will be stronger with northward extent, supporting a few
strong/severe storms with damaging wind potential, the very deep
afternoon mixed layer farther south (mixed to/above 700 mb) will
likely co*pensate somewhat for the lack of shear.  As such, isolated
severe gust potential may extend southward into the southern High
Plains.

...The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region...
As a weak upper low shifts southeastward across the Northeast,
modest afternoon destabilization is expected across portions of the
region.  While uncertainty regarding ample CAPE development exists,
a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the southern and
western flank of the low will provide sufficient shear for
southeastward-moving storms and potentially linear
segments/clusters.  Presuming at least minimally sufficient
afternoon destabilization, stronger storms would pose a risk for
damaging gusts locally, into the early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024