Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF WESTERN
MO...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four
Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains. Strong to
severe storms are also possible across western Missouri and also
across western Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over the West
today. An embedded mid/upper cyclone is forecast to move
southeastward from northern CA into the Great Basin. Downstream, an
upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Plains. One surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the
northern High Plains, while another weak surface low may develop
across the south-central High Plains. 

...Four Corners region into the central High Plains...
The eastern fringe of stronger southwesterly flow aloft (associated
with the deep upper trough) will overspread a plume of midlevel
moisture from the Four Corners region into the central Rockies.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the region
this afternoon. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and modest but
sufficient buoyancy will support potential for a few loosely
organized cells and/or clusters, with a threat of isolated strong to
severe gusts. 

Richer low-level moisture and stronger instability will develop this
afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, where moist
easterly flow is maintained to the north of a nearly stationary
surface boundary. With capping and weaker large-scale ascent
expected, storm initiation within this more-unstable regime may be
suppressed. However, high-based convection that develops over the
higher terrain could spread into the central High Plains by early
evening, potentially acco*panied by an isolated strong to severe
gusts and perhaps some hail. 

...Western MO and vicinity...
Most guidance suggests an increase in elevated convection near and
after 12Z across parts of western MO, driven by low-level warm
advection and moistening in the 850-700 mb layer. Effective shear
will not be particularly strong, but relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates and moderate elevated buoyancy will support potential for a
few robust storms. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the
strongest storms. Also, despite the elevated nature of the
convection, initially rather dry profiles below the moist layer
could support locally strong gusts. 

Depending on the coverage and intensity of morning convection,
cold-pool development will be possible, which could lead to a
southward-propagating cluster across western MO. This scenario
remains quite uncertain, but there will be some potential for an
isolated damaging-gust threat to spread into southwest MO from late
morning into the afternoon. 

...Parts of western OK into northwest TX...
Despite generally weak large-scale ascent, some guidance suggests
potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
within a very hot/well-mixed environment across parts of western OK
into northwest TX late this afternoon into the early evening. With
weak deep-layer shear and the influence of the upper ridge, storms
will likely remain disorganized, and coverage of storms remains
uncertain. However, any stronger storm within this environment would
pose a conditional microburst threat. A 5% wind area has been added
where relative confidence in storm development is currently
greatest. 

...Northeast MT into northwest ND...
Moderate to locally strong instability may develop this afternoon
from far northeast MT into northwest ND, with sufficient deep-layer
shear to support storm organization. However, large-scale ascent is
expected to remain rather weak across the region, and there is only
a very weak signal for diurnal storm development. Some threat for
severe hail and/or wind could acco*pany any robust storm within this
regime, but confidence in storm coverage is too low for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Karstens.. 08/24/2024