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Mesoscale Discussion 1981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232239Z - 240045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated threat for wind/hail will be noted with
convection this evening. Watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level heights are being suppressed a bit over
central/eastern MT along the eastern influence of a short-wave
trough that is ejecting north across the northern Rockies. While
large-scale influence of this feature will likely remain focused
across western MT, strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to
steep 0-3km lapse rates as temperature are now well into the mid
90s. Convective temperature have been breached, and negligible CINH
is supported by thickening boundary-layer cu field, and isolated
thunderstorms between GGW-OLF. This clustering is occurring within a
zone of favorable low-level confluence, and along an instability
axis where MLCAPE values are in excess of 2000 J/kg. There is some
concern a few robust updrafts will evolve across eastern MT over the
next few hours as surface-6km bulk shear is more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts; however, it's not entirely clear how
many storms will evolve. Another concern is any storms that linger
beyond sunset will eventually be aided by a strengthening LLJ. Will
continue to monitor this region, but at this time a watch is not
currently anticipated.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   49010432 46200421 46210675 48800743 49010432