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Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232013Z - 232215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over
the next few hours across western and central Montana. Isolated
damaging gust of 55-70 mph are possible, along with a few instances
of hail to near one inch diameter.

DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is occurring over the MCD area
as temperatures have warmed into the 80s F this afternoon.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain meager, but steep midlevel lapse
rates/cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing to
around 500-1000 J/kg through early evening. Deepening cumulus is
noted over the mountains and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage over the next couple of hours as stronger ascent
overspreads the region. 

Favorable vertical shear will support organized updrafts/clusters,
while dry low-levels and very steep low-level lapse rates support
strong/severe gusts. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction
with favorable midlevel instability/shear will also support isolated
marginally severe hail with more intense/longer-lived updrafts.
While some MLCIN remains over the region, additional heating and
increasing ascent should gradually erode inhibition, but overall
poor vertical moisture profiles will limit instability.
Nevertheless, a severe thunderstorm watch may beco*e necessary,
especially if convection across southwest MT/eastern ID sufficiently
organizes into forward propagating clusters with time as this
activity shifts north/northeast.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   47561510 48721479 48931407 49031285 48991101 48061016
            47261004 46551016 46311028 45981076 45781140 45591292
            45911393 46921475 47561510