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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and
in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward
with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward
across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the
northern Plains/central High Plains area.

At the surface, a cold front will acco*pany the upper system,
shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and
southeastward across the southern Rockies.  This front will focus
convective development through the period.

...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies...
Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in
strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern
Dakotas.  While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit
widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to
initiate during the afternoon.  

As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt
-- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone.  Resulting
shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such,
attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass
is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies.
However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively
driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt
of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging
wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which
evolve during the afternoon and evening.

..Goss.. 08/23/2024