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Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644...

Valid 230144Z - 230345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind/hail threat will spread across eastern portions of
ww644 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection that initiated over the
higher terrain of central/southern CO has matured into an MCS that
is now advancing into northwest KS. Over the last hour or so, a weak
MCV appears to have developed which is now just south of AKO,
supporting the overall organization of this co*plex. 1km AGL
southeasterly inflow across western KS is on the order of 25-30kt,
which will encourage propagation across at least the western
portions of the main instability corridor. 00z soundings from the
central High Plains exhibit substantial CINH, and further
boundary-layer stabilization is expected as surface temperatures
cool. Given the organization of this co*plex, further propagation is
likely into the eastern-most portions of the watch; however, updraft
intensities have likely peaked and gradual weakening can be expected
by 03-04z. Until then, damaging winds will likely be the primary
risk.

..Darrow.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40200372 40500082 38750082 38450370 40200372