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Mesoscale Discussion 1974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...c*nvection is expected to increase in areal coverage
across the central High Plains over the next few hours. Hail/wind
are possible with these storms as they spread across eastern
Colorado toward northwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has contributed to very steep
0-3km lapse rates across eastern Colorado. Scattered robust
convection has developed off the higher terrain which is now
propagating over lower elevations where temperatures remain in the
90s. Over the next few hours, this activity will spread into a
corridor of somewhat stronger low-level convergence characterized by
higher boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Diagnostic
data suggests MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg near the CO/KS border
where surface dew points are holding above 60F. While satellite
imagery does not explicitly reflect any short-wave troughs, modest
500mb southwesterly flow does extend across this region and 0-6km
bulk shear is at least 30kt. This environment is supportive of
supercells and ongoing activity should continue to grow upscale into
the early evening. With time, LLJ is forecast to increase across the
TX Panhandle into western KS so a larger co*plex of storms could
emerge. Hail/wind are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39290438 40480325 39570110 37690229 39290438