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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts
of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners
region.

...Four Corners Region...
The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on
Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel
moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air
mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the
stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here
during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of
strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt
may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. 

...Central/Northern High Plains...
An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge
will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western
trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near
the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western
Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap
stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in
this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally
severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain
weak.

Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and
southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be
weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse
rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/22/2024