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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in
parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with
an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot
northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe
moving into northern CA into Saturday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during
the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast
winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough
also extending from central MT into the northern and central High
Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the
western Dakotas in response to the lead wave.

...UT/Western CO and southwest WY...
Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears
during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and
heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear
increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of
marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. 

...Eastern MT into northeast CO...
Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western
WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind
aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY
and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally
unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with
this activity.

..Jewell.. 08/21/2024