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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and
linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger
southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry
air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the
weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather
potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms.

...Northwest and Great Basin...
As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest
D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will
gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of
OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy
conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to
near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be
strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with
gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be
at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the
weekend.

Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as
stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central
Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather
potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue
across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week.

...Southern Plains...
Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern
Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead
of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds
and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence
remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical
fire-weather potential.

...Dry thunderstorm potential...
Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the
Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a
plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest
ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be
possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away
from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning
potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID
beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture
depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will
continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should
gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting
rains increase beneath the upper low.

..Lyons.. 08/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...