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Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Areas affected...southwest into central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202011Z - 202215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could produce
strong/damaging gusts and isolated hail into early evening across
parts of southeast into central Montana. Area is being monitored for
possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
over the higher terrain of southwest Montana. This area has quickly
warmed into the 80s F as earlier cloud cover has shifted northeast.
Additional convection is expected to develop further east near the
Beartooth/Absarokas over the next couple of hours. Collectively this
convection will spread northeast into this evening.

Modest instability, mainly supported by steep midlevel lapse
rates/cool temps aloft, and effective shear magnitudes greater than
35 kt will support organized/robust updrafts. Forecast hodographs
along with regional VWP data also indicate shear favorable for
supercells. Given high-based storms and steepening low-level lapse
rates, strong/damaging gusts are possible with this activity as it
beco*es better organized with time and northeastward extent into the
high Plains. A few instances of hail up to 1.25 inch diameter is
also possible. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this
afternoon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 08/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45531289 46451251 46751218 47121145 47421034 47500949
            47450855 47020732 46200683 45770694 45210755 45210863
            44971202 45041265 45231284 45531289