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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and
southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper
Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England,
while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the
southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will
remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of
60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough.

Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they
may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds
around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region,
supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to
the east.

Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest
instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as
far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over
the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day
wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of
day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is
maximized.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2024