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Mesoscale Discussion 1958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Montana and western North Dakota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191944Z - 192115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some intensification is possible as storms move northeast
across eastern Montana. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A slow moving cluster of storms has persisted across
eastern Montana through most of the day today. Somewhat more robust
convection has developed southeast of the primary cluster in the
presence of greater instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). SPC
mesoanalysis shows inhibition has mostly eroded ahead of these
storms and it should co*pletely erode in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
speed max overspread eastern Montana within the last hour (sampled
40-45 knots between 4-5km on the GGW VWP). This increase in deep
layer shear may support an increase in storm intensity later this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45850479 45840523 46080584 46390631 46660628 47860617
            48570558 48940453 48670312 47360266 46180324 45800421
            45850479