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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado
remain possible this evening across the Ohio Valley.

...01z Update...

Upper low has advanced into Lower MI early this evening with a
trough extending southwest toward the lower OH Valley region.
Several forced line segments have materialized ahead of the upper
low with the majority of organized convection currently noted across
ON. South of lake Erie, a loosely organized squall line, roughly
150mi long, is progressing across northern OH and should propagate
into western portions of PA later this evening as the short wave
advances downstream. 00z sounding from PIT exhibits SBCAPE around
2400 J/kg with ample shear for the maintenance of this convection as
it propagates east.

Farther southwest into the lower OH Valley, activity is considerably
more isolated where the influence of the upper trough is notably
weaker. However, buoyancy is seasonally strong with 00z sounding
from ILN displaying around 4500 J/kg SBCAPE, but decidedly weaker
surface-6km shear, though ample for organized updrafts. Latest
radar/satellite imagery suggest updrafts are strengthening a bit
across southern IL, and additional convection may yet evolve along
the lesser-forced boundary along the OH River. Wind remains the
primary risk with this activity.

..Darrow.. 07/21/2022