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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is
forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge
further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface,
a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western
Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for
morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated
with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger
low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an
isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By
afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will
overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would
be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any
cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind
gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as
northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2024