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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
A shortwave ridge over the eastern part of the northern Plains is
forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Further west, the large-scale
upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern
Plains on Tuesday and into the upper Mississippi Valley from
Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will move away from a moist
axis in the northern Plains, where moderate instability is forecast
each afternoon. Thunderstorm development, some with potential for
isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible each
day. The greatest severe threat during the mid-week is expected on
Wednesday in the Dakotas, where southwest mid-level flow and strong
instability is forecast in the wake of the upper-level ridge.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday, some model solutions deepen an upper-level trough over
the Intermountain West. In response, the north-central U.S
upper-level ridge would move eastward toward the western Great
Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms, possibly associated with a severe
threat, would be possible within a moist airmass located further to
the west from Nebraska into the Dakotas. However, some solutions are
slow to move the upper-level trough into the western U.S. This would
keep the upper-level ridge further west, negatively impacting the
severe potential across the northern Plains. Under this scenario,
storm coverage would be more isolated and the severe threat would
not be as great.